Kicking off the morning a little late as have been watching the market predictably rally at the open. Am always wary of the "relief rally" tag, so just take note that at 6144 sits the 30DMA.
Resistances
6300
6250
6200
6144 (30DMA)
Supports
6100 (200DMA)
6045 (90DMA)
6000
5800
27 May 2008
Trading Day
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TRADES!
ReplyDeletesome very quick trades using the 1-min chart.
FTSE Daily
SELL @ 6130
BUY @ 6122.2 to close
PROFIT 7.8 pts
BUY @ 6129
SELL @ 6136.6
PROFIT 7.6 pts
SELL@ 6129.9
TRADE!
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6113.3
PROFIT = 6129.9 - 6113.3 = 16.6
I don't hang around using the 1-min chart! Once the trend looks over, just take it. The 1-min chart I find useful during the first 1 or 2 hours. Once the market settles down or moves sideways the 1-min chart becomes unreliable, and switch to 3-min.
TRADE!
ReplyDeleteSELL@ 6115.5
using 3-min chart.
Note that the SAR on 30-min chart has been hit, so bearish, but MACD still slightly positive. If this latter changes will hang on to this trade.
STOP 20 pts
Dow looks very weak again and has squashed FTSE's brief rally.
Hanging on to this one.
ReplyDeleteSTOP moved down to 6120.
Note that so early in the session the FTSE has hit both its resistance and support. Potentially this could move sideways for the next 4 hours, but Dow futures looking very weak.
...
very funny! in mid-sentence FTSE dumps 15 pts!
STOP was moved down to 6115 - so at worst a flat trade. The 3-min chart indicates closing this at 6109. Am probably ignoring this at my peril. A move above 6115 would break the downward trend since about 8.30am. Has been a good morning so far. Will risk this one!
ReplyDeleteIgnoring the indicators for the moment, just look at the trend. On the 3-min chart it is a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This will be broken above 6115 - hence why I'm stubbornly sticking to this position. One chart I rarely use is the 10-min one, but on this occasion it describes my position very well. Below 6100 and both the 30-min and 1-hour charts are bearish. So I have a 15 point window in which to close flat or run my profits. Worth the wait and see.
ReplyDeletePatience has paid off! On the one hand, a good example of taking a step back from the short-term indicators and looking at the actual trend. In this case the 3-min downward trend was never really broken. Similar information could be gained by switching to the 30-min view. At the boundary between the two views it is worth being cautious, but we were already at the point of bringing our stop down to the opening level.
ReplyDeleteNow that the 30-min and 1-hour views have been confirmed, I have a trailing 20 pt stop. ... looking good!
Patience exhausted! Took it!
ReplyDeleteclosed at 6050.5
PROFIT = 6115.5 - 6050.5 = 65 pts
If there is any more mileage in this fall then the open option will pick it up.
I think this was good work.
On the sidelines for now.
TRADE!
ReplyDeleteFTSE Daily
BUY @ 6063
short STOP at 6050
Didn't really trust this retracement, but the Dow is also showing signs of moving up.
Slightly feeble 3-min signal, hence the short stop.
A nearly $3 drop in oil seems to have change this session's sentiment.
ReplyDeleteSTOP now at 6065, so min 2 pts profit bagged.
As usual, for the FTSE falling oil is double-edged - negative as hits the petrocorps, but also positive as eases inflation fears.
This could be the same story on the way up as it was on the way down. 30-min SAR hit so new trend. Moved stop to 6070.
ReplyDeleteIndeed have now plugged in a trailing 20 pt stop, just for security.
Oil down nearly $4.
At 15:00 BST (in 5 mins) have the US May consumer confidence and the UK April new homes sales.
ReplyDeleteWell, these should put the brakes on this last hour's rally!!
Maybe I should really close this trade, but now very close to hitting the stop bout 6075. Never mind, should have snatched the profit while it was there!
Bloody lucky! Don't know how it didn't stop me out - been waiting to see if the trade went through but it hasn't.
ReplyDeleteGiven that I don't believe in miracles I'm bailing out right now at 6103.
Profit = 40 pts.
Very very lucky!!
Now, it's one thing to know when to trade, and another to know when not to. I'm here staring at the 3-min chart telling me to go short, but I'm also aware that this afternoon trend has been upwards. We have higher highs and higher lows - a mirror-image of this morning. So, I may be proved wrong, but I'm doing nothing. If it does drop, my option will make back what it lost this afternoon, and I've made 40 pts on the upswing compared with losing about 15 pts on the option.
ReplyDeleteOK, I was wrong. I should ave believed the mighty indicators. Never mind, my reasoning was... reasonable. Not many mistakes are cost-free. Yes, was also profit-free (but don't forget the open option). Has been a good day so I won't have one lousy decision rain on my parade.
ReplyDeleteLast few minutes looking grim... but I'm not complaining.