In contrast to yesterday, this morning is very very early. The Dow recovered last night, so the expectation is of a similar move from the FTSE. The spread betting companies seem pretty good at estimating the opening levels (and pretty quick at adjusting their quotes) but I often feel that the actual cash market needs to feel the new index level on paper rather than just on the futures market. The FTSE is currently quoted about 25 points above yesterday's close. The price of crude oil dropped sharply yesterday to close below $129. The two largest companies in the FTSE are Shell and BP. The FTSE is calculated using a market cap weighting. It would not surprise me to see a dip before we see a rally.
Resistances and Supports as yesterday.
I may, or may not, be here at the open as need to go out. However, see previous Trading Days for strategies.
28 May 2008
Trading Day
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Back just before the bell. We may already have seen the predicted dip pre-market.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for a move above 6085 on the 30-min chart, or a move down to 6050 on the 1-hour chart.
Otherwise will be looking for small trades using the 1-min and 3-min charts.
Enjoy the ride.
FTSE daily
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6065.3
using 1-min chart
closed at 6085.5
ReplyDeletePROFIT = 20.2 pts
Pretty cool for a 1-min trade! Sometimes works like crap, but 20 pts is an average 3-min trade, so banking this one!
TRADE!
ReplyDeleteSELL @ 6073.8
stop 20 pts
using 3-min chart.
well that worked!
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6075 to close.
LOSS = -1.2
I'm not sitting around waiting for my morning to be ruined. Went down to about +10 pts then retraced, so bailed out.
OK, I've pulled my chair back, taken a long hard stretch and... doing nothing!
ReplyDeleteWas just about to trade when the FTSE shed 5 pts in one gasp, so pulled out. As yesterday, still trading within two daily moving averages. The indicators are unclear.
Crude oil has fallen another $2 with the predictable fillip to the Wall St futures, and the predictable mixed reaction from the FTSE.
This gives me an opportunity to ramble. there is one famous indicator that I never particularly got on with: Bollinger Bands. However, a look at the daily chart for the FTSE shows us that the index has moved from the upper to the lower band. I think most textbooks will say that the index is now likely to trend down, usually hugging the lower band. Another negative sign to add to all the other bearish signals. Of course, having lost some 300 points , nearly 5%, in 7 days is unlikely to produce many bullish indicators, but if they are of any use whatsoever they are telling us that this story hasn't finished yet.
I woke up there for a few minutes. But proved to be a false signal.
ReplyDeleteAt 13:30 BST we have US durable goods orders and at 15:30 US crude inventories.
So set your alarms and go back to sleep.
Oil and gold going down, markets flat, currencies flat. So where's the money going? Probably coffee futures to keep the troops awake.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteSELL @ 6084.5
3-min chart
OK, missed the rally of the last hour. On the assumption this continues to drift, then it'll drift downwards.
BTW in a bored moment been reading Gordon Brown's comments on the surging price of crude. It is nauseously predictable that every problem is a global problem, whereas every success is greeted with drinks all round for the lucky lads and ladettes. The UK has one of the highest taxes on petrol, with some 65% of the pump price going to the government - not sure if this also includes the taxes on oil companies and distributors. Pretty rapacious for a country that is, after all, an oil producer itself. Look at yourself Brown, before preaching to the world. Not that I particularly care, but it is boring to read. Why can't he say something interesting like,"I'm lowering petrol prices to ease the short-term pain (and rising inflation), and by the way, all new cars must be hybrids within 5 years." A policy he will not need to implement as he won't be in his current job - not unless he creates a John Major style upset. But with all the charisma of a stale glass of beer, that seems unlikely.
End of rant.
Nearly 10 pts profit.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6079 to close
PROFIT = 5.5
have taken the crumbs off the table as per 3-min chart.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6082.5
risky, but both 30-min and 1-hour charts showing weak bullishness although the index price is slightly below their original triggers. 3-min chart showing a buy. Will bail out quickly at 6075 if this turns.
moved STOP to 6083 quickly, so a risk-free trade now.
ReplyDeleteWill continue to treat this as a pure 3-min trade unless goes above 6100.
SELL @ 6095 to close
ReplyDeletePROFIT = 6095 - 6082.5 = 12.5 pts
Have cobbled together some 36 pts profit in a market going nowhere.
But am growing concerned about my put option. It has maxed out at about 105 at the moment. The IG Index chart has a price spike which makes the chart unreadable and the indicators pointless. The trade was taken using the daily chart. If FTSE reaches 6150 may close that trade.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6105
best I could get with the sudden jump upwards.
Trailing 15 pt stop as have to pop out!
I did have a brief look and saw my stop had been taken at 6108.3.
ReplyDeletePROFIT = 3.3 pts.
Pretty useless.
If I'd been paying proper attention then the obvious thing was to go short at about 6099 and then closed that around 6070, using in both cases the 3-min cues. I wasn't, and I didn't. Sometimes, other things take priority.
Closing Comments
ReplyDeleteNot bad for a dopey day! Squeezed out about 40 pts profit from a choppy market - could easily have been double that had I been paying complete attention. But does also show that you don't have to be glued to your screen to make something. So long as you're following the story - or at least the numbers - then this can fit around whatever else needs doing. Yes, I regret missed opportunities, but nowhere near as much as screwing up trades!
Enjoy your evening (or whatever time of day it)!