Well, we're sitting pretty much where we were this time yesterday. The score is 3-3 in terms of hitting the upper and lower moving averages this week. And so we enter the extra-time known as Friday (or the 4th quarter if you think football is played with the hands). But I don't expect the killer trade till the second half, with three pieces of data coming out of the US between 13:30 and 15:00. Rather late in the day for the FTSE but still enough time for a dramatic finale. The worst case would be a stalemate at the whistle, with the out-of-hours FTSE waiting for the Dow penalty shoot-out.
The only really important levels are
Resistances
6129 (30DMA)
6099 (200DMA)
Supports
6047 (90DMA)
6000
beyond these you can take a guess.
The struggle is for the 200DMA level, with the other two MAs squeezing the FTSE into making a decision either way.
30 May 2008
Trading Day
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TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6065.5
using 1-min chart
short stop
TRADE
ReplyDeleteSELL @ 6066
PROFIT = 0.5 pts
not hanging around here! was 6pts up then back down.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteSELL @ 6061
1-min chart again
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 6066
LOSS = -5 pts
not working this morning so won't force it!
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY FTSE to finish up > 50 @ 9.9 pts
This may seem a strange bet, and usually not a great idea to cover one trade with another as might as well close the first trade.
In this case I have my eye on closing my 6000 put option. I don't really fancy more time value eroding away, and have watched it this week bounce between 100 and 70. Was opened at 58.5 and has been in profit all this time. So... this is my hedge in case 6050 is going to be our current bottom and we see a rally towards 6130 or more. Market this morning is as clear as mud. I think it's a cheap hedge.
Sitting on my hands for the moment. This could be a long boring morning session... maybe I should go read the news sites for amusement.
Just as filler, let's see why there is currently nothing to do.
ReplyDeleteThe early 1-min signals gave a small loss, so I abandoned that chart. The 3-min chart is giving poor entry and exit points as the market trades sideways in a narrow range. Again, am for the moment ignoring them. The 30-min chart is slightly bearish but that signal was from late last night. The 1-hour chart was bearish as the FTSE touched 6050 but the index is now way above that level. The one clear thing is that things are unclear. This in itself is a signal to stay out.
The only clear signal would be a move above 6085 on the upside, and the obvious move down below the rather stubborn 6045. Anything within this range I just won't trust for now.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE to finish down > 50 pts @ 13.1
OK, so now have the volatility play set up at a combined cost of just 23 points. The combined closing price is currently about 22.7 so is good value.
Now I really will sit and wait!!
:-)
woken up now!!
ReplyDeleteThe option popped up 10 pts for no seemingly good reason - obviously an IG Index repricing. This is equivalent to about 20-25 pts drop in the FTSE. I shan't look a gift horse in the mouth (what does that mean?) and will definitely take it today; before IG reprice it back down!
BTW for those of you seriously bored, the saying was first written down in 1546 in a ook of proverbs and was,"no man ought to look a given horse in the mouth." which makes a lot more sense. Be grateful for any gift and don't inspect how much it is really worth; in this case telling the age of the given horse by the wear on its teeth. Mystery solved.
LMFAO! The charmers at IG have put the options on telephone dealing only and are buggering around with the price. They are obviously losing money here! Always happens when they start losing seriously. Very poor, as the futures options are not binary bets and should be conducted under FSA regulations, not GC. If you ever have a very big win, take it slowly, if you can.
We may well have the last laugh as everything is going soft... think of Dali clocks melting into the sand...
ReplyDeleteWell... let's get the trades out of the way first.
ReplyDeleteThe two ranges both closed at zero.
LOSS = -23 pts
I may regret this, but took the option:
SELL @ 91.5
PROFIT = 91.5 - 58.5 = 33 pts
I don't want to hold it over another weekend.
After extra-time the score is 4-4 and just hate watching penalties.
Whilst writing this I see the Dow up and that the FTSE actually closed above 6045 as it pumped up some 20 pts during the settlement period.
Total for the day is a miserly 5.5 pts profit, and will start Monday with a clean slate.
If every bad day comes with a small profit then we're not doing too badly really.