Where are we going today? The FTSE daily chart shows absolutely no signs of recovery, with 5500 and below looking likely. The resistances are so far away that they are as likely to be touched as a cathedral vault. Oil, banks, housing and retail are our four horsemen of the apocalypse - all we need now is another dumb war as a parting shot from a lame US administration. Of course, the reason to manufacture a war is to manufacture arms and thereby help a large but selective part of the economy - the General Electrics and Westinghouses of this world.
Resistances
6000
5800
Supports
5680
5500
5415
12 Jun 2008
Trading Day
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TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE Daily
SELL @ 5747.8
1-min chart
BUY @ 5724.5
Profit = 23.3 pts
TRADE
FTSE Daily
BUY @ 5725
1-min chart
TRADE
ReplyDeleteSELL @ 5724 to close
LOSS = -1
TRADE
SELL @ 5723.3
TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE Tunnel
Keep in range +/-100pts
SELL @ 82.2
OK this is a bit speculative but a move of,say, 50 pts should bring this down to about 40.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 5730.3 to close
LOSS = -10
TRADE
BUY @ 5732.3
(having problems saving comments on here atm)
TRADE
SELL @ 5766.3 to close
Profit = +31 pts
TRADE
FTSE Tunnel
BUY @ 72.4 to close
Profit = 82.2 - 72.4 = +9.8 pts
Have little faith in how this instrument is priced, best take profit now.
Closed everything pretty quickly! I will write further about Tunnels, but from experience their time value can easily erode any gains from the index move. As the volatility has increased over the last month the binary bet values have decreased, making going short more risky.
ReplyDeleteFTSE drifting for the moment, waiting to see whether to head for 5800 or back to 5700. From the 3-in chart, waiting to see if breaks to 5760 to go short.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteSELL @ 5760.3
3-min chart
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 5758.8 to close
Profit = +1.5
Not hanging around here, has retraced some 9pts already so closing out the trade.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE to finish down > 30 @ 18.4
slightly speculative spread trade using the D>30 binary bet, but I think cheap at the price, and won't get stopped out.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteAug Gold Futures to rise @ 22.5
This is not particularly cheap as already some $10 down, but shows how volatile the gold price has been intra-day.
The logic here is that $870 is a crucial level for gold, being the 200DMA. It dipped briefly below this at the start of May and rebounded, only to revisit it now. It could very well fall through this and head back to $850 or $800. The gamble here is that it won't!
TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE
BUY @ 5761.1
3-min chart
TRADE
ReplyDeleteSELL @ 5769
Profit = +7.9
Not much, but the FTSE isn't exactly brimming with confidence. I may be wrong, but taking this now.
Been spooked as my mobile internet connection died! Luckily only had binary spread bets open so no stops to worry about.
ReplyDeleteAm at +63.5 for the day but carrying two potentially losing trades at -18.4 and -22.5, so could be staring at just over 22 pts profit. Those two are currently worth about 8 pts, so could close and walk away with 30 pts for a half day's work. At these levels I'll take my chances and wait for any inflammatory comments from the US or Israel over Iran. I know, trading is a life of dashed hopes!
My connection seems fine again so just taking stock.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE Daily
SELL @ 5774.5
3-min chart
Gold is falling fast and sitting below its 200DMA. If it doesn't hold on to this level then much of the shine of gold will be smeared away - whatever the gold newsletters tell you. A lot of gold's rally has been built on increased demand from newly affluent nations such as India and China. If an ill-wind should blow through these markets then those precious trinkets will be finding their way back to the gold shops. But for today, looks like I've screwed up here. Nothing like a volatile market to kick you in the teeth while you're smiling.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened?
ReplyDeleteTRADE
BUY @ 5744.5
Profit = +30 pts
when it slams down like that I don't wait to think.. just take the profits before it lurches back up.
This makes up for the bum gold trade.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE BUY 5759
3-min chart
SELL @ 5782 to close
Profit = 23 pts
has made enough for a 3-min trade and... well...I don't have much faith in this relief rally. US consumer spending seems to be better than expected and yet the Fed's Beige Book warns of a slowdown. As usual, bask in the good news first, then get depressed later in trading's twilight hours.
TRADE
ReplyDeleteFTSE
SELL @ 5779.5
3-min chart
TRADE
ReplyDeleteBUY @ 5774.8 to close
Profit = +4.7
bit of a waste of time. Hung on to it too long.
Think I'm probably done for the day - studying the gold charts at the moment.
ReplyDeleteTotal so far is
+121.2
-40.9
= +80.3
Pretty good, though still smarting from my dumb gold trade, and should have taken the D>30 at the same time as I took one index bet as the FTSE lost 30 pts in one load.
Will try to find the time to write about gold in my Clouded View.
One last crazy bet..
ReplyDeleteFTSE to finish up > 50
SELL @ 95.1
LMFAO
ReplyDeletewas briefly in profit and just 12 pts away from being in the money... then the FTSE goes up up and away!! Oh well... spread betting loses again where spread trading won.
... sadly into the settlement period as yet again in profit. Somehow don't think it will shed another 15 pts. Slightly insane ending.
Will wait to see if closes at zero or 100.
Final score for the day is +75.4 pts.
ReplyDeleteThe one really stupid spread bet was the gold one; trying to predict rather than just following the numbers. The 200DMA is no longer as rock solid as it has been for over 10 months. Been tested twice now in 6 weeks and if closes below 866 could start to look bearish. These indicators are never adamantine but rather lines in the sand; small overshoots happen intra-day but a close well below this is not good.
The gold market doesn't close for some 1.5 hours but I leave without the slightest grain of hope that it will claw back today's $20 loss so far.
Postscript
ReplyDeleteGold did in the end rally above $870, but too little too late for my binary bet. Indeed, one slight problem regarding trading gold on spread betting platforms is the small number of contracts available, certainly compared with the FTSE and Dow.